Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forgive the Red Wings if they are looking past the Ducks and towards this weekend when they could have a chance at matching the longest home winning streak in NHL history.
After all, wins over Anaheim at Joe Louis Arena are almost a given for Detroit.
The Red Wings aim to make it 19 straight victories as the host this evening with an eighth consecutive defeat of the surging Ducks in Motown.
Detroit's current string of home victories is a franchise high and the longest in the NHL since the Philadelphia Flyers tied the league record by winning 20 in a row during the 1975-76 season. The mark was first set by the 1929-1930 Boston Bruins.
The Red Wings have not suffered a loss at home since Nov. 3 and returned off a 2-2-1 road trip that ended with two straight defeats to knock off the Oilers 4-2 on Wednesday in the first of six in a row at home. The game also began a span of 11 of their next 14 at Joe Louis Arena for the NHL-leading Red Wings.
Following a two-goal setback in Phoenix on Monday, Detroit got third-period goals from Drew Miller and Henrik Zetterberg to put away the Oilers. Cory Emmerton and Johan Franzen also scored to improve Detroit to 21-2-1 as the hosting club this season. Still, the Red Wings are just 15-15-1 on the road but lead the NHL with 74 points, one more than both the Canucks and Rangers.
Detroit was able to avoid a letdown at the start of its lengthy homestand and with a victory tonight, it will have a chance to even the NHL record on Sunday versus Philadelphia.
"People that don't travel with us and just watch home games have no idea how hard it is to come back and what a grind it is," Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. "This game is always a tough one to win. We knew that coming in."
Adding to the potential trip up was the fact that starting goaltender Jimmy Howard remains out with a broken right index finger. Joey MacDonald again got the start for the league's wins leader and made 15 saves.
It will be either MacDonald or Ty Conklin in net for the Red Wings tonight as they try to avoid their first loss at home to the Ducks since Feb. 10, 2008. Detroit has won seven in a row and 16 of the last 17 as the host in this series and holds an all-time home record versus Anaheim of 29-3-0 with three ties.
Detroit shut out visiting Anaheim 5-0 in the first of four meetings this year on Nov. 5 and added a 4-2 road victory over the Ducks later in the month to give it a win in five of six and 10 of the last 13 encounters overall.
Franzen, Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom and Brad Stuart all have a pair of goals versus the Ducks this year, while Franzen and Pavel Datsyuk have added three assists in the two meetings as well.
Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne have the goals for the Ducks, who are 11-2-2 since Jan. 6, when they were 20 points out of a playoff spot. They have halved that deficit since and sit 10 points behind the eighth-place Coyotes.
Anaheim picked up its second straight victory on Wednesday, logging a 3-2 overtime win over Carolina. Corey Perry netted the game-winner at the 2:14 mark chasing down a loose puck after perhaps getting away with a tripping call on the Hurricanes' Jussi Jokinen.
Perry sent a quick pass to Sheldon Brookbank before receiving a return feed and firing it home for his first goal in seven games. Koivu added his first goal since a hat trick on Jan. 10 -- a span of 11 straight games without a goal -- and Nick Bonino scored.
"All these games that we win are going to be nail-bitters as we get closer to the playoffs," Ducks head coach Bruce Boudreau said. "So every win we get is going to be huge."
Jonas Hiller came up with 31 saves and is 9-2-2 over his last 14 appearances with a 1.93 goals-against average. Hiller has allowed two goals or fewer in 11 of those outings.
While the Ducks could probably think of a better location to start their eight-game road trip, which equals the longest uninterrupted swing in club history, Perry thinks Wednesday's win could give the club some momentum heading into Detroit.
"We needed it before the road trip. We didn't want to go on the road trip on a losing note. Eight games is a long way and it could make-or-break our season," said Perry, whose club has won four of its past six on the road and won't play at home again until Feb. 26.
While Detroit's Danny Cleary is questionable due to a lower-body injury suffered in the Red Wings' most recent game, forward Tomas Holmstrom is expected to suit up for the 1,000th game of his career this evening. He is set to become the 272nd player in league history to reach that figure and the sixth to skate in 1,000 games with the Red Wings.
Lidstrom, meanwhile, will match Alex Delvecchio (1,549) for second place on the Red Wings' all-time games played list this evening.
<< Cavs and Bucks clash at the 'Q'
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Kyrie Irving probably won't play
again tonight after suffering a concussion earlier this week, but Ramon
Sessions will be there to pick up the slack.
Sessions filled in nicely for Irving the prev
<< Heat visit nation's capital to take on Wizards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting their six-game road trip off to a poor start,
the Miami Heat will dust themselves off for tonight's showdown against the
lowly Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.
The Heat had won three straight and 11
<< Clippers resume road trip vs. 76ers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers will close out a seven-game stretch
that head coach Doug Collins dubbed as "Death Row" when they entertain the
upstart Los Angeles Clippers tonight from Wells Fargo Center.
The Sixers are 4-2 on the
<< Thunder conclude road trip in Utah
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oklahoma City will attempt to wrap up a five-game road trip
on a winning note tonight when Kevin Durant and Company visit Salt Lake City
to take on the Utah Jazz.
The Western Conference-leading Thunder dropped to 2-2 o
Mavs visit Love, Timberwolves >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves will have Kevin Love back in the
lineup tonight versus the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center after serving a
two-game suspension for stomping on Houston's Luis Scola during the third
quarter of Satu
Magic welcome Hawks to central Florida >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic try to stay hot tonight when they welcome
the Atlanta Hawks to the Amway Center.
This, of course, is the first meeting between these Southeast Division rivals
since Atlanta knocked the Magic out of last
Giggs to play another year at United >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United manager Sir Alex
Ferguson has revealed that midfielder Ryan Giggs will return to the club for
another season after signing a one-year contract extension.
The 38-year-old Giggs m
Blazers, Hornets tangle in the Big Easy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland hopes a Western Conference-worst New Orleans team
proves to be a bit of a tonic after the Blazers dropped consecutive games in
Rip City.
A controversial goaltending call on All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge al
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting