The Sixth Man: Pacers fail big test

Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A moral victory in professional sports borders on being a contradiction, at least until you actually see one.

There are no participation trophies when the big boys play, only the cold, hard reality of wins and losses. Lose by one or lose by 40, it still counts the same in the standings.

"I am a moral person, but I don't believe in moral victories," Sixers coach Doug Collins told me after one heartbreaking loss last season.

That stuck with me and it's the way a coach should think. After all, you never want to show any sign of weakness to your charges no matter what the opposition looks like.

That said, all losses are not created equally and the improved Pacers found that out Tuesday night when mighty Miami arrived at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and routed Indiana, 105-90.

It was a big test for an Indiana team trying to reach the next level and the Pacers were certainly catching the star-studded Heat at the right time. Miami was playing for the third time in three nights, and most expected even the league's most athletic players would wear down over stretches like that.

"I told these guys if you rebound, defend and have good ball movement, it's going to be hard to beat you," Indiana president of basketball operations Larry Bird said about his team before the game. "You have to keep the defense on their heels and you have to come ready to play every night. We talk about all these back-to-backs, but if you come in shape and mentally strong, you should be able to overcome all of that."

Bird's words ended up as one heck of a foreshadowing device for Miami. The Heat looked anything like a worn-down team and were as mentally strong as it gets.

Miami's stars were every bit as effective as usual. LeBron James netted 23 points to go with nine rebounds and seven assists, while Dwyane Wade chipped in 16 points and Chris Bosh added 13 for the Heat. Even rookie Norris Cole waxed the Pacers off the bench, matching a career-high with 20 points.

"When you have three games away in three days on the road, we knew we were going to have to come out and get a good start, and we did," Wade said. "We knew we had a job to do and I think we really outplayed them at both ends of the floor."

Miami swept games on three consecutive nights for the first time since 1999. It was the third time such a sweep has happened in the NBA this season, and the first to occur entirely on the road.

To me, though, it wasn't about the Pacers losing, it was how they lost. I'm not sure it's fair to expect Indiana to beat the Heat just yet, even on its home floor with Miami playing the finale of a back-to-back-to-back.

However, it's not a stretch to expect a fight. If the Pacers shot out of the blocks like Usain Bolt and faltered down the stretch, well, that would have been acceptable and an indication that they were headed in the right direction.

Instead the Heat began the game on fire. Wade knocked down all five shots he took in the first quarter and Miami shot 57.1 percent from the floor while holding Indiana to just 26.1 percent en route to a 33-16 edge after one.

Just like that it was over.

"They came out and jumped all over us. There was no way that we could battle back from the hole that we dug for ourselves," said the Pacers' Dahntay Jones. "They're one of the better teams in the NBA and they're not going to let you back in when they get you down the way they got us down tonight."

It was almost like the Pacers were spectators in their own building. The Heat were The Beatles. They were the attraction and Indiana gushed like screaming teenage girls.

In hindsight, the game was decided before the opening tip by Miami's reputation.

The Pacers' next step isn't beating the Heat -- it's believing they belong on the same floor. In other words, you need the moral victory before you get the real one.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.